Ones to Watch ("OTW") objects are live cards which can receive an upgrade based on ingame performance in real football. If a player receives a TOTW object, the OTW will move to the same rating as well. At the current game it's new, that OTW players have the possibility to get a permanent +1 upgrade, if their team wins 5 out of the 10 first games.
The Ones to Watch promo is always the first promo of a new game. The price fluctuation of these cards is very extreme due to speculation from all involved players which bought the card. It's a gamble at the end of the day, because you speculate on players, which will perform in real life. Next to that it could happen for example, that a player is injured and there is no potential for a long time which lets the price fall to the ground. It's a method where you can gain a lot of FIFA coins but lose everything as well.
How to trade with OTW cards
I recommend minimizing the risk of trading with these cards. The best window to invest in this kind of cards is after they DIDN'T perform in real life because many players will sell due to panic. Hold them during the week and sell them, while hype builds up regarding the next matchday. Pick players which are most likely to score a goal. Obviously strikers are a good possibility but wingers and offensive midfielders as well. Pick players which are most-likely to start from the beginning of a game as well.
You have 3 possbilities on how to trade with OTW cards:
1. No risk: Sell on matchday in front of the starting squad announcement (2 hours before the game starts). You will gain low profits without risk.
2. Low risk: If you bought a player, which will be most likely starting in the upcoming match, sell him after he got announced for the starting squad.
3. High risk: Hold a player while speculating on a performance in the match. Sell after a goal while everyone is hyping the card.
For example: Alaba OTW
1. Gains hype on match day because he starts for Real Madrid. (From 24.000 to about 30.000 coins)
2. Scores a goal and rises immediately about +85% in price. (65.000 coins)
3. During hype the price rises to about +100%. (70.000 coins)
4. After the TOTW card is released, the price of the Ones to Watch card drops immediately. (<52.000 coins)
In this graph you can see the development of a Ones to Watch card with a potential to get upgraded within 4 days. You see that the card decreases in price, even though the card got the upgrade.
I recommend not holding a card until the TOTW after a good performance, because in my experience most of the OTW cards will decrease in price after a TOTW gets released and of course if they don't get released. Sell in the hype!
Active way to gain coins
There is a pretty easy way to make coins with OTW cards while being active. You can listen to a live ticker without delay for the games of OTW cards. If one of the cards scores, snipe as fast as possible for +5% of the current value. Scoring cards will have a big increase after a goal, so you should sell immediately afterwards to profit from the hype.
OTW trading is depending on your willingness to take risks and how you manage the risk. There is nothing wrong in buying players after they didn't perform and selling them on matchday in front of the starting squad announcement to gain little profits. The big profits will come from gambling but that is as well a part of trading. Know your risk and what you're ready to lose in order to have a chance to gain the big coins. Don't invest your whole coins in a "live or die" gamble with one card. You could possibly lose everything!
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